Curriculum
- 8 Sections
- 24 Lessons
- 5 Hours
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- What Makes a Good Decision Under UncertaintyLearn how to judge decision quality beyond outcomes, recognize different types of uncertainty, and spot the signals of a well-framed decision so you can move without waiting for perfect information.4
- Framing the Problem and ObjectivesTurn vague asks into crisp decision statements, define objectives and constraints, and set success metrics with guardrails so options become comparable and teams align faster4
- Surfacing Assumptions and Calibrating ProbabilitiesMap assumptions, rate evidence quality, and improve how you express confidence using probabilities and ranges so decisions become clearer, less emotional, and easier to defend.4
- Comparing Options with Simple ModelsUse quick decision trees, expected value, downside risk, and sensitivity checks to compare options with lightweight analysis that is fast enough for real-world timelines.4
- Experiments, Indicators, and ThresholdsDesign lean experiments to reduce uncertainty, choose leading indicators that show progress early, and set decision thresholds that trigger a pivot or persevere call.4
- Bias-Busting for TeamsIdentify common traps like anchoring, confirmation bias, and sunk cost, then apply premortems, red teams, and checklists to keep debate grounded in evidence, not opinions.4
- Facilitation and Stakeholder AlignmentRun decision meetings with clear roles, write a crisp decision brief, and communicate tradeoffs so stakeholders understand the rationale and execution stays aligned.4
- Cadence and Playbook for High-Stakes CallsBuild a repeatable cadence for weekly and quarterly decisions and use a high-stakes playbook for who decides, how evidence is weighed, and when to commit.4
High-stakes playbook: who, how, when
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